Political risk analysis

Companies wanting to establish a long term presence in a country must adapt to the political and cultural context, and thus perfectly understand and accurately predict its possible trends.

In order to respond to our clients’ needs, our political risk team carries out, on an ad-hoc basis or over time, the following tasks: reviewing the main articles and research on the given country, interviewing numerous experts and sources in the field and remotely, analysing the information in order to identify key issues and establish possible scenarii.

Particular focus is given to:

  • International and regional environment;
  • Security context: political landscape, destabilizing factors;
  • Mapping of players and power dynamics: hierarchies, allegiances, rivalries and opposition groups;
  • Political and budgetary orientations, laws and regulations;
  • Risks and potential challenges: corruption, unfair competition, predatory behaviour, political rivalries etc.

What makes our method unique is a combination of an academic culture and an intelligence-based approach, coupled with knowledge of the main risks businesses are exposed to.

Support to responses to international tenders

Large international contracts are subject to competitive tenders, in which competing companies have a lot at stake over one single decision, in a context which is not always transparent. It is no longer enough to be the most competitive; rather it is equally vital to be the most knowledgeable and influential, all while protecting oneself against potential foul play.

To help our clients succeed, we review public information, mobilise our experts and investigate on the ground to provide them insights on the following issues:

  • Decision-making process: key individuals, decision-making and influential skills, expectations, level of transparency and ethical behaviour;
  • Competitive environment: strengths and weaknesses, possible unfair practices;
  • Support and backing: strengths and weaknesses of partners, agents and consultants who may facilitate success.

Compliance reviews/due diligence

n a merger or acquisition, the strengths of the target company are fairly clear, unlike its possible weaknesses. Yet a partnership, which leads to disputes, or an acquisition, which fails for lack of having identified its weak points, may have disastrous consequences.

In order to help our clients to make the right decisions and to take the necessary precautions to effectively carry out a merger, we mobilise our sources to investigate the following areas on the ground:

  • Detailed administrative information;
  • Historical background;
  • Profile and reputation of shareholders and managers;
  • Competitive, political and cultural environment;
  • Compliance with the law, international sanctions, ethical standards and our clients’ expectations.

The depth of investigation depends on the issues involved and the degree of risk.